Human Stupidity Index

Archived version, no longer live

This is v1.0 exactly as first published, kept for reference. The site now runs on a newer methodology version.

Methodology v1.0

This document defines the Human Stupidity Index. It is both the implementation spec and public content on the site. Changing anything here requires a version bump, and old versions stay published.

Definition

Stupidity, here, means behaviour that is collectively self-defeating given available knowledge. Not ignorance — ignorance is not knowing. Stupidity is knowing and proceeding anyway.

The index measures the species, not individuals. It has no moral claim about any person.

Scale

Every indicator and the final index run 0 to 100, where 0 is large-scale cooperation for shared benefit and 100 is self-annihilation.

Normalisation

Each indicator has two anchors fixed at v1.0 and never adjusted afterwards. Moving anchors would let the index be tuned to a desired answer.

s = clamp( 100 * (v - anchor_min) / (anchor_max - anchor_min), 0, 100 )

Where anchor_min is the value corresponding to score 0 and anchor_max the value corresponding to score 100. When a higher raw value means *less* stupidity, anchor_min is simply the larger number and the formula handles the inversion without a separate branch.

Anchors are chosen as plausible historical or physical bounds, not as observed minima and maxima, so the index does not rescale itself every reading.

Pillar and index computation

pillar_score = mean(indicator scores in that pillar)      // equal weight within
index        = Σ (pillar_weight × pillar_score)           // weights below

The index is reported to one decimal place. Pillar weights sum to 1.

Pillars, weights and indicators

P1 — Existential risk (weight 0.25)

ID	Indicator	Unit	anchor_min (0)	anchor_max (100)	Source	Cadence
`doomsday`	Doomsday Clock, seconds to midnight	s	300	0	Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists	annual
`warheads`	Global nuclear warhead inventory	count	0	70000	Federation of American Scientists, Nuclear Notebook	annual

P2 — Armed conflict (weight 0.20)

ID	Indicator	Unit	anchor_max (100)	Source	Cadence
`conflict_deaths`	State-based conflict deaths per 100,000 people	rate	20	UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset	annual
`active_conflicts`	Active state-based armed conflicts	count	60	UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset	annual
`displaced`	Forcibly displaced people, share of world population	%	3	UNHCR Global Trends	annual

P3 — Climate and biosphere (weight 0.20)

ID	Indicator	Unit	anchor_min (0)	anchor_max (100)	Source	Cadence
`co2`	Atmospheric CO₂, Mauna Loa monthly mean	ppm	280	560	NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory	monthly
`temp_anomaly`	Global surface temperature anomaly vs 1880–1899	°C	0	4.0	NASA GISTEMP v4	annual
`living_planet`	Living Planet Index, 1970 = 100	index	100	0	WWF Living Planet Report	biennial

P4 — Resource misallocation (weight 0.15)

ID	Indicator	Unit	anchor_min (0)	anchor_max (100)	Source	Cadence
`mil_gdp`	World military expenditure as share of global GDP	%	0	6	SIPRI Military Expenditure Database	annual
`mil_oda`	Ratio of world military expenditure to official development assistance	ratio	0	20	SIPRI + OECD DAC	annual

P5 — Epistemic condition (weight 0.10)

ID	Indicator	Unit	anchor_min (0)	anchor_max (100)	Source	Cadence
`press_freedom`	RSF World Press Freedom global score	score	100	0	Reporters Without Borders	annual
`democracy`	V-Dem Liberal Democracy Index, population-weighted	0–1	1	0	V-Dem Institute	annual

P6 — Cooperation (weight 0.10)

This pillar is the counterweight. High cooperation pushes the whole index down.

ID	Indicator	Unit	anchor_min (0)	anchor_max (100)	Source	Cadence
`immunisation`	Global DTP3 immunisation coverage	%	100	0	WHO/UNICEF WUENIC	annual
`extreme_poverty`	World population in extreme poverty	%	0	60	World Bank, $2.15/day 2017 PPP	annual

Known limitations, stated publicly

Pillar weights are a judgement. They are not derived. They are published so the judgement can be argued with, and a recomputation tool in a later version will let readers set their own.
Indicators update at different cadences. Most are annual. The index therefore moves slowly and should not be read as a live feed.
The cooperation pillar is under-measured. Cooperation leaves fewer statistical traces than violence. This is a real bias toward a higher index and is not corrected for.
Anchors are defensible, not objective. They are fixed so that at least the bias is constant across readings.

Data file

The computed reading is published at /data/hsi.json under a stable URL and is free to reuse with attribution. Each indicator entry carries its raw value, its normalised score, its source name, source URL, and the date the value refers to.